You Start Losing Money You Never Made

March 23, 2020.

The market is moving fast.

Really fast.

COVID has turned normal trading days into something else.

You're watching ESM20.

And you're watching one level in particular.

2175

You've seen this number before.

Years before.

November 2016.

ESZ16 had blown through that area with size.

You remembered Rick Santelli talking on CNBC about the enormous notional value that had traded through that level.

For whatever reason, that number stuck with you.

2175

Now, more than three years later price is back.

You watch.

It tests the area.

Holds.

You're in.

The trade starts working.

A few points.

Then a few more.

ESM20 is moving fast enough that you don't have much time to think.

Five points.

Seven.

Ten.

That's a good trade.

More than good.

You take it.

Click.

Out.

Ten ES points.

You lean back.

Nice.

Except ESM20 doesn't stop.

It keeps going.

A few more points.

You'd like to get back in but not here.

Not after it just ran ten points.

You'll wait for the pullback.

There has to be one.

ESM20 keeps climbing.

Okay.

Let it come back.

It doesn't.

Higher.

You look at your old entry.

Then at the current price.

Back to your entry.

You wait.

Surely you're not going to chase it up here.

It'll pull back.

Higher.

Now you're starting to do the math.

Twenty points above your entry.

Then thirty.

Your ten-point winner doesn't feel quite as big anymore.

Forty.

Come on.

Give me a pullback.

Nothing.

Every time it looks like it might come back it goes higher.

You're still waiting.

Still watching.

Still doing the math.

At some point, ESM20 trades 96 points above your entry.

Ninety-six.

You made ten.

You stare at the chart.

You caught the level.

You were right about the trade.

You made money.

And somehow you feel terrible.

That's a strange feeling.

Your account is green from the trade.

The profit is real.

Nothing was taken away from you.

But you're not thinking about the ten points you made anymore.

You're thinking about everything after them.

Twenty.

Thirty.

Forty.

Eventually ninety-six.

The further ESM20 moves the worse your winner starts to feel.

Somewhere along the way:

I could have made more.

becomes:

I should have made more.

That's a small change.

It doesn't feel small sitting in the chair.

By the settlement, ESM20 is still 46 points above your entry.

You look at the chart again.

Ten points.

That's what you made.

Forty-six points.

That's where it settled above your entry.

Ninety-six points.

That's how far it went at one point.

So how much did you leave on the table?

Thirty-six points?

Eighty-six?

Something in between?

You only get to answer that question because the trading day already happened.

The trader sitting there now gets to see the whole chart.

The trader who clicked out didn't.

But that doesn't stop you from counting.

You made ten points.

You're thinking about the other eighty-six.

Except you never had those eighty-six points.

They never appeared in your account.

You never watched that profit grow.

You never gave it back.

There was nothing to lose.

And somehow you feel like you lost it.

Maybe your numbers are different.

Maybe you sold a stock at $42 and watched it run to $47.

Maybe you took 40% on an option and watched it double.

Maybe you caught a beautiful move, took your profit, and spent the next two hours watching price continue without you.

At first you felt good.

Then less good.

Eventually you started wondering how you could have screwed up a trade you made money on.

You've probably said it.

I left so much money on the table.

Maybe you did.

But there's something strange about that table.

You get to see everything that was sitting on it only after you walk away.

And maybe the next pullback finally comes.

But now you're looking at it differently.

You're not looking at a new trade.

You're looking at the move you missed.

The move you were supposed to have.

The money you should've taken.

That's how a trade you already closed can quietly follow you into the next one.

Go back to that morning.

The level holds.

You're in.

ESM20 starts moving.

You take ten points.

Winner.

That's what your account says.

Then the market keeps going without you.

Higher.

Higher.

Higher.

You sit there waiting for the pullback that never comes.

At one point, price is 96 points above where you entered.

You look at your entry.

Then your exit.

Then where ESM20 is now.

And you do the math again.

The ten points you actually made barely enter the calculation.

You're counting something else.

Money that was never in your account.

Profit you never held.

Points that happened after your trade was over.

And yet they feel strangely like yours.

Which leaves one uncomfortable question:

When did the part of the move that happened without you become yours?

_{Disclosure: Struggling Trader exists to share lessons, observations, and experiences from the markets. I’m here to help people think about trading, not tell them what to buy or sell. Every trader’s situation is different, and all financial decisions are ultimately your own responsibility. Markets carry risk, including the risk of losing money, so always do your own research before investing or trading.}